Toynbee’s Prediction

In 1973, Toynbee foresaw the internal conflict within Western civilization. He points out in A Study of History that the world situation has changed greatly since the mid-20th century. First, the progress of science has pulled the world into a unified market. Second, the use of nuclear technology, especially nuclear weapons, forces mankind to face a serious common threat. Third, the world’s resources are drying up. Fourth, human environment is being seriously polluted. These four changes throw humanity into an irreversible era of globalization and a common destiny. Mankind is faced with a single choice: either one world, or none at all. Clearly, the world needs unity, a unified political culture. But this great unification is not to be achieved through the elimination of differences. Instead, it can only be attained through acceptance and tolerance of differences, without which peaceful coexistence wouldn’t be possible. However, the spirit of multiculturalism and tolerance of differences cannot be grounded in monotheistic Western culture. This is the dilemma confronting Western culture in the new century.

According to Toynbee, only culture from the East can adapt to the new situation, and only Buddhism can provide a ground for unification. Only in China can we find a cultural starting point for mankind in the new century. He has high hopes for the role of the Communist Party of China. To bring peace to human life that has been disturbed by the West, to soften Western energy and make it an active yet not destructive force in human life, we must look for an initiator of this new culture outside the West. It won’t be surprising if such an initiator should appear in China sometime in the future.

If the Communist Party of China can blaze a new path in its social and economic strategies, Toynbee adds, and then it can prove its capacity to endow a gift to China and the world. The gift will be a combination of the vitality in modern Western society and the stability of traditional Chinese culture. What effects may be brought by the belated yet very risky social experiment in China is still determined by non-western deities.

Why does Toynbee put his hopes on China in the East and on the Communist Party of China in particular?

He explains that self-destructive elements are hidden in both the Western way of life and the traditional Chinese lifestyle. The Western way is explosive and aggressive, while the traditional Chinese way tends to fixate and fossilize. But both provide people with what is integral to their life. The explosive Western lifestyle is energetic, while fossilizing Chinese culture can bring stability. Western culture is likely to be replaced by a blended and unified new form which can combine Western energy and Eastern stability. In this way, a lifestyle suitable for all mankind can possibly be produced, to guarantee human survival and to ensure our peace and happiness. Toynbee made his prophesy in 1973, when China had just begun its contact with the rest of the world. His prediction is a result of his study of 33 human civilizations over 7000 years. He didn’t place his hope on the Soviet Union and the Soviet Communist Party. He thought that the Soviet Union belonged to the West in terms of culture and religion.

Toynbee’s prophesy still rings out loud in today’s world.

Chinese Culture’s Historical Mission in the 21st Century A global blueprint is now rolled out before us in the 21st century. Technologically, the world is moving toward globalization and unification. But in culture, it is moving toward multiplicity, variety and co-existence. It has become the consensus of scholars and politicians, both East and West, that a time has come for cultural fusion and exchange.

And this is an opportunity for Chinese culture. The essence of Chinese culture is multiplicity, a trait that was acquired in the long process of multi-ethnic exchange, competition and struggle. As a result, Chinese culture is very tolerant, making it most receptive of foreign cultural elements. On the other hand, multiplicity makes it likely for Chinese culture to abandon many out-dated elements. Chinese culture is most flexible and adaptive. In short, due to its pluralistic nature, Chinese culture now welcomes its golden opportunity in an age that calls for the spirit of diversity, tolerance and exchange.

Despite this, we need to work harder to improve our culture.

The most important task is to reshape our belief system. In the thirty years of China’s reform and opening up, we have successfully carried out a social reform or transition. But this process is not yet complete, because our culture work is lagging behind. We may have material prosperity, but in terms of spirit, we have many problems, such as the lack of faith, moral deterioration and overt commercialism.

In order to remodel our belief system, we need to sum up the history, study cultural realities and find the real source of culture among the people. I believe that our belief system will be an integration of multiple components, including the following.

First, Marxism. As a science, Marxism points out the direction for human history. Without Marxism, the welfare society and trade unions wouldn’t be possible in the West. Today, we still have to rely on Marxism to understand and resolve the conflicts and contradictions of our society. Moreover, the communist ideal and beliefs of universal brotherhood are unstoppable historical trends.

Second, Confucianism. Confucianism is the most influential part of Chinese culture. Its central idea is to achieve social order and harmony by means of self-improvement of all individuals. Confucianism can provide guidance for conducting oneself in daily life and for maintaining the dignity of the individual.

Third, Buddhism. Buddhism was introduced into China nearly two thousand years ago. After its fusion with Confucianism and Taoism, it was localized and became an important part of faith of Chinese people. It gives acceptable answers to the ultimate spiritual subject of life and death. Toynbee says that in a world materially unified, if Buddhism was the only religion, personal freedom of choice could be protected. Unfortunately, Christianity and Islam do not have the Buddhist tradition of tolerance.

Fourth, Western learning. The general attitude of Chinese people toward Western culture is “take and use”. It can make up for over-softness of Chinese culture. We’ve known western learning for 300 years. It has affected every aspect of our lives, especially after the reform and opening up. Therefore, Western learning should become a reasonable part of our culture. Fifth, Daoism. Daoism, which advocates the harmony between man and nature, shows great wisdom in handling man-nature relations. This is especially important today. In fact Taoism is much more than this. It also provides us with a transcendent perspective on life and the world. Concluding Remarks

History has placed Chinese culture onto the center stage of world civilization in the 21st century. With a history of 5,000 years, the Chinese nation must shoulder the responsibility for a new culture for mankind. But we must clearly recognize that although the Chinese culture has the potential to help rejuvenate human civilization, great efforts are needed in order to realize it.

First of all, we must turn China from a power in culture to one in civilization. A modern power in terms of civilization is supported not by behavioral culture, but by institutional culture. The highest form of institutional culture is a political system or political civilization. Some have realized that promoting Western civilization and its political system to the East as a universal paradigm is impossible. We must learn from the best political wisdom in human history and create a new democratic political system that suits China’s national conditions and the world situation. This is the most important task in promoting our political civilization to meet the cultural challenges of the 21st century.

Secondly, we must improve the quality of the people and strengthen the public awareness of civilization. The most important part is people’s awareness of basic human rights and human dignity. Disregard of the value of others and of the environment often implies disregard of one’s own self-worth. The 21st century is one of exchange, fusion, interaction and mutual promotion of all civilizations in the world. In this process, we must complete the full transition from citizens of culture to citizens of civilization.

Finally, we must establish a new view of the world and perceive our task from the height of a new civilization for mankind. The future world is neither the transplantation of Western civilization in the East, nor a simple revival of Eastern civilization. Instead, it’s going to be an integration of all major civilizations, whose merits will combine to make a new world civilization. With a broader mindset and a historical vision, let’s embrace the new era of world culture in the 21st century.

(Liu Yunde，professor of tourism at Zhuhai College, Jilin University)

(From Xinhua Digest, No. 23, 2011)

(Translated by Zhou Xiaojin)